Investing.com – Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices point higher and oil declines, with President Donald Trump’s comment that the more than week-old war in Iran could be over « very soon » offering a balm to soothe investor jitters. But Iran signals a willingness to continue fighting and has reportedly warned that it could close down supply flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway. Elsewhere, cloud-computing giant is due to report its latest quarterly returns after U.S. markets close.
1. Futures higher
U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday, as nervous investors were somewhat mollified by hopes that a conclusion to the Iran conflict may be nearing.
By 04:11 ET (08:11 GMT), the Dow futures contract had gained 140 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had risen by 25 points, or 0.4%, and had advanced by 127 points, or 0.5%.
The main averages on Wall Street gyrated wildly on Monday, swung to and fro by developments in the ongoing joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran.
Stocks tumbled, oil prices spiked, and bond yields soared initially, fueled by the naming of Mojtaba Khamenei as the next supreme leader of Iran — a selection that President Trump dubbed unacceptable. Mojtaba Khamenei is a son of former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggesting that Iran’s ruling regime would not deviate from its hardline stance despite pressure from the U.S. and Israeli air attacks.
Concerns over a prolonged conflict engulfing the Middle East and constraining crucial oil flows out of the region were exacerbated, with much of the fears for traders swirling around a potential surge in inflation across the world delaying central bank policy easing and weighing on growth.
But stocks recovered, oil dipped and bond yields pared back gains after Trump said in an interview that his campaign against Iran was « very complete, pretty much. » A rollercoaster session ended with all three of the major U.S. equity indices in the green.
« [I]nvestors remain more concerned about missing the rally that will likely accompany the first sign of de-escalation from the White House than they are about being caught long in the event of a further deterioration in Middle Eastern conditions, » analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.
2. Trump says Iran conflict over « very soon »
Trump later said the Iran war would be over « very soon, » adding in a press conference that « major strides toward completing our military objective » were being made.
He described the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran as a « tremendous success right now. »
Yet, as it has throughout the conflict, the messaging from the White House was tinged with caveats. Trump flagged that the U.S. « could go further, and we’re going to go further. »
In particular, Trump said he would kill Khamenei if he does not accede to Washington’s demands. He also threatened to ramp up strikes if Iran attempts to stem oil shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway through which a fifth of the world’s crude flows passes.
Iranian leadership, for its part, has reportedly said that not « one liter of oil » will be allowed to transit the strait should the U.S. and Israel continue their assault.
3. Oil falls
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending losses after a whipsaw session as Trump also highlighted measures to help offset crude supply disruptions.
clawed back some of its intraday losses, as Trump offered few direct cues on just when the conflict could end and a harsh response from Tehran on any potential de-escalation kept markets on edge.
Trump raised the possibility of allowing some waivers on oil sales by sanctioned entities, chiefly Russia, as well to help counter hits to supplies from the Middle East. At the same time, the Group of Seven advanced economies were mulling the possible release of emergency oil reserves to steady the global oil market, reports said.
futures dropped 7.3% to $91.77 a barrel by 04:39 ET, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 6.1% to $85.93 a barrel.
Oil had risen as high as $120 a barrel on Monday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on several Iranian energy facilities marked a fresh escalation in the conflict.
4. climbs
Gold prices rose, but remained in a tight trading range, as markets sought more cues on the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
Bullion rose amid a broader improvement in risk appetite following Trump’s comments about a possible end to the fighting and measures to help temper the spike in oil prices.
The price of the yellow metal remained squarely in a $5,000-$5,200 per ounce trading range established over the past week, as traders parsed a storm of uncertainties facing the global economy.
Gold’s appeal was dented by worries over the inflationary effects of the conflict, which could in turn elicit more hawkish stances from major global central banks and possibly grant more strength to the U.S. dollar. This would make buying gold more expensive for overseas buyers.
The greenback weakened slightly on Tuesday, in a sign that those inflation fears may be fading.
5. Oracle to report
On the earnings front, Oracle will be in the limelight after the closing bell on Wall Street.
Once viewed as a smaller player in the cloud market, the company’s prominence has expanded rapidly thanks to a partnership with OpenAI which has given it a prime position renting out the computing power needed to underpin artificial intelligence models.
Yet investors have become ever more skeptical around how Oracle plans to fund its massive spending on building out the data centers to serve OpenAI and other customers like Facebook-owner Meta Platforms. The firm said in December that it now expects to shell out $50 billion in capital expenditures during its current fiscal year — up from a prior estimate of $35 billion.
To that end, Oracle is eyeing culling its workforce by thousands of roles, Bloomberg News has reported. Meanwhile, Bloomberg also reported that Oracle and OpenAI have ditched plans to expand a big AI data center in Texas due to prolonged financing negotiations.
Oracle shares, which shot up to roughly $328 in September, were exchanging hands at $151.56 prior to the start of U.S. trading on Monday. The stock has fallen by more than 22% so far this year.
« [S]entiment is still very cautious around Oracle, » the Vital Knowledge analysts said.
Source:
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