Rome – The benchmark measure for world food commodity prices rose in February, ending a five-month downward trend, as higher quotations for wheat, most vegetable oils and several meat types outweighed declines in cheese and sugar prices, according to the new update released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 125.3 points in February, up 0.9 percent from its revised January level while still 1.0 percent below its level a year earlier.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.1 percent from January, driven primarily by higher world wheat prices reflecting reports of frosts in parts of Europe and the United States of America as well as ongoing logistical disruptions within the Russian Federation and the wider Black Sea region. International coarse grain prices also posted a modest increase, while the FAO All Rice Price Index edged up by 0.4 percent from the previous month, supported by sustained demand for basmati and Japonica varieties.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 3.3 percent in February, reaching its highest level since June 2022. International palm oil prices rose amid firm global import demand and seasonally lower outputs in Southeast Asia, while world soyoil prices increased on expectations of supportive biofuel policy measures in the United States of America. Rapeseed oil prices rebounded, driven by prospects of stronger import demand for Canadian supplies. By contrast, sunflower oil prices eased moderately, partly due to rising export supplies from Argentina.
The FAO Meat Price Index increased by 0.8 percent from January, as ovine meat prices reached an all-time high and bovine meat prices rose on the back of strong import demand from China and the United States of America. Prices of pig and poultry meats edged up slightly from January.
The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 1.2 percent, driven primarily by lower cheese prices. International quotations for skim and whole milk powders increased notably amid strengthening import demand from North Africa, the Near East and Southeast Asia, while world butter prices registered their first monthly rise since reaching an all-time high in June 2025.
The FAO Sugar Price Index was down by 4.1 percent from January and by as much as 27.3 percent compared with February 2025 amid expectations of ample global supplies in the current season.
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Wheat production is likely to drop in 2026 as softer prices curb sowings
FAO also released new wheat production forecasts for 2026, with preliminary outlooks pointing to a likely global decline of around 3 percent to 810 million tonnes, albeit remaining above the past five-year average.
Farmers in the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States of America are expected to reduce the area sown to winter wheat in response to softer crop prices. The production outlook in India, however, is generally favorable, supported by record sowings encouraged by government incentives. Prospects are also positive for Pakistan and broadly favorable in China.
FAO’s new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also provides an early outlook for maize production south of the equator. Expanding planted areas and favourable weather conditions point to above-average outputs in Argentina and Brazil. In South Africa, large plantings are forecast to lead to a second consecutive bumper maize crop in 2026, although it may be below the 2025 level due to irregular weather lowering yields in some provinces.
The FAO brief also revised upwards its estimate for 2025 global cereal production to a record 3 029 million tonnes, a 5.6 percent increase from the previous year.
The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2025/26 has also been revised upwards, to a record 2 943 million tonnes, with gains expected for wheat, coarse grains and rice. The new estimates point to world cereal stocks likely rising to 940.5 million tonnes by the close of seasons, resulting in a comfortable global cereals stocks-to-use ratio of 31.9 percent.
FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals during the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) stands at 501.7 million tonnes, a 3.5 percent increase from the previous 12 months and the second highest level on record.
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The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor on Friday. The new edition offers an in-depth look at global wheat cropping trends, while noting the risk of escalating conflict in the Near East driving up energy and fertilizer prices, potentially increasing production and transport costs for farmers around the world.
41 countries in need of external assistance for food due to conflicts and weather shocks
FAO estimates that 41 countries globally, most of them in Africa, require external assistance for food, due mostly to conflict and insecurity and in some cases to weather-related shocks, according to a separate report also released today by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS).
The latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report also provides data and insights on cereal outputs by subregions, underscoring significant variability.
Among the 44 Low-Income Food Deficit Countries, aggregate cereal output is expected to decline by 1.0 percent in the 2025/26 season, while utilization is likely to grow by 1.5 percent, pushing up import needs marginally year-on-year to 55.7 million tonnes.
Source:
www.fao.org