Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.
He is risen! But the “he” is certainly not President Donald Trump, whose poll numbers have fallen lately, even when it comes to one of his most supportive groups: white evangelicals.
In March 2025, 82% of white evangelical voters approved of Trump’s performance as president, according to polling conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News. But that has now fallen to 64%.
That’s still a strong majority, but it also makes for a drop of 18 percentage points—much more than the 8-point decline among all registered voters across the same time period. As it stands, Trump’s net approval rating among white evangelicals has been cut in half, decreasing from +64 points in March 2025 to +28 points now.
Is this the result of a late-blooming moral revulsion to Trump and his punitive agenda? After all, his immigration policies fly in the face of the teachings of both the Old and New Testaments. As Jesus said in the Gospel of Matthew, “Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.”
On top of that, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has carried out numerous attacks on faith leaders. In November, an agent shot Rev. Jorge Bautista in the head with a pepper ball while he was protesting Trump’s violent immigration tactics in California. A very similar thing happened to a pastor in Illinois in September. And just a few months ago, 99 clergy members were arrested amid an anti-ICE protest at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.
It’s possible that these actions have played a role in white evangelicals’ declining support for Trump, though it’s unlikely to be the driving force.
First off, the share of white evangelicals approving of Trump’s job performance fell 13 points in the polls conducted shortly before and after he unveiled his infamous “Liberation Day” tariffs, which have increased the cost of goods across the country.
Also, while white evangelicals’ support for Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda has indeed fallen, they remain the most supportive of any major religious group in the United States.
Roughly two-thirds of white evangelical Protestants have a favorable view of ICE agents, according to a newly released study from the Public Religion Research Institute, whose data was collected after all of the attacks on faith leaders outlined above. That makes this group’s sunny view of ICE officers 32 points higher than the broader American public’s.
While that’s far more than other white Christians, both white Catholics and white mainline Protestants also have a rosier view of ICE agents than the public at large.
White evangelicals’ support extends beyond ICE as well. Nearly 7 in 10 white evangelical Protestants support Trump’s broader conduct on immigration, according to PRRI.
And while around half of white Catholics (53%) and white mainline Protestants (46%) support Trump’s handling of immigration, those levels of support have dropped quite a bit since March 2025. Among white Catholics, it has dropped 10 points. And among white mainline Protestants, it’s down 18 points, which is especially notable since it is greater than the 13-point decline among the broader public.
Of course, Christians of color and other religious groups have much different opinions. Hispanic Protestants, religiously unaffiliated Americans, Jews, and members of other non-Christian religions all have more negative views of ICE officers than the broader public does. That’s especially true with Black Protestants and Hispanic Catholics—just 16% of each group has a positive view of ICE agents.
These racial trends hold true even among Christian nationalists, whose support Trump has regularly courted with hollow appeals to faith, like holding a Bible outside of a church during a 2020 protest against police brutality.
Another recent PRRI study sorted survey respondents according to their agreement with various tenets of Christian nationalism, such as “Being Christian is an important part of being truly American.”
The study found that while 79% of white Christian nationalists have a favorable view of Trump’s handling of immigration, that opinion is shared by just 34% of Hispanic Christian nationalists and just 27% of Black Christian nationalists.
Despite Trump’s cynical invocations of Christianity, his support from believers seems to have little to do with their religion or even its crossovers into nationalist politics. Rather, what continues to draw many of them to Trump is, first and foremost, the color of their skin.
Robert P. Jones, the president and founder of PRRI, wrote in The Atlantic in 2020 that the institute’s data shows that “the more racist attitudes a person holds, the more likely he or she is to identify as a white Christian and vice versa.”
There is “so much work still to be done” on how white-majority churches tackle racism and white supremacy, he told NPR. “White Christians have been largely silent … and have hardly begun these conversations.”
He said that in 2020. But as the latest data shows, it remains true to this day.
Any updates?
Trump wants his name on everything, including U.S. currency—but Americans don’t. Only 21% of Americans say “the sitting U.S. president’s signature” should definitely or probably be on new money, according to YouGov. Notably, only 44% of Republicans want the president’s scribble on our cash.
The Senate race in the coldest state is heating up. A new poll from Alaska Survey Research shows Democrat Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in a head-to-head by 5.5 points among registered voters. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system doesn’t even get in her way, with Peltola holding a roughly 5-point lead or better in a simulation of ranked-choice tabulations.
Last weekend’s “No Kings” protests have broad support across the nation, with a new YouGov poll showing 48% of Americans approve of them and only 33% disapprove.
Nine months after Trump signed his Medicaid-slashing tax bill, and four months after Republicans let expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies expire, health care has become the most pressing issue among Americans. A Gallup poll finds that 61% of Americans personally worry “a great deal” about the accessibility and affordability of health care. That’s higher than any other issue, including the economy (51%) and inflation (50%).
Conservative opposition to raising the minimum wage generally hinges on the idea that unbearable price hikes would be needed to offset wage increases—but a new study finds that’s far from true. According to a working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, California’s enactment of a $20 minimum wage for fast food workers in 2024 led to a price increase of just 3.3% to 3.6% relative to other metro areas. Put simply, a $10 meal becomes, at worst, $10.36.
Vibe check
Girls go to college to get more knowledge. Boys go to the moon, apparently.
Timed with Wednesday’s launch of Artemis II—humanity’s first voyage to the moon in more than a half century—YouGov asked Americans whether they themselves would take the trip if offered the opportunity and guaranteed a safe return to Earth.
Overall, Americans were split: 44% would go, 40% wouldn’t. But hiding beneath the topline is a stark gender divide.
A majority of men (56%) would visit the moon, but only 1 in 3 women would.
There was also an age gap, with younger Americans more willing to take le voyage dans la lune. Majorities of those ages 18 to 29 and 30 to 44 would go. People ages 45 to 64 were split. But 58% of those 65 and older would keep their feet planted on Earth. A worry over health issues, perhaps?
So, Daily Kos community, would you go to the moon?
Source:
www.dailykos.com
