National Republicans were breathing a little easier on March 4 after President Donald Trump said he would intervene to end a bruising GOP runoff in the Texas Senate race.
Yet nearly a week later, Trump still hasn’t made good on his promise to endorse in the race and force the candidate he doesn’t pick to drop out. And a new poll from a Democratic super PAC shows that Republicans will be in trouble in November no matter which GOP nominee emerges—which could keep Trump on the sidelines.
“Cornyn is radioactive with the MAGA base. Paxton has baggage. And James Talarico is leading,” Lauren French, spokeswoman for poll sponsor Senate Majority PAC, wrote in a post on X.
After neither Sen. John Cornyn nor Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton received at least 50% of the vote in the state’s March 3 Republican primary, Senate Republicans both publicly and privately lobbied Trump to endorse Cornyn, practically begging their Dear Leader to get involved and push Paxton out of the contest because they view him as the less electable candidate.
Anonymous Republicans told reporters that Trump would be backing Cornyn, whom establishment GOP leaders view as more in line with the Texas electorate.
However, the reports led prominent right-wing figures—including Trump’s eldest son—to go berserk about the possibility of the president picking Cornyn over MAGA darling Paxton. That possibly spooked an already hesitant Trump from getting involved in the GOP civil war playing out in the race.
On Monday, Democrats tried to add to Trump’s inner strife, releasing an internal poll that found Talarico leading both Cornyn and Paxton in a hypothetical November matchup.
“Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds no meaningful difference in electability between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton,” the PPP polling memo says, along with head-to-head findings that show Talarico leading both Cornyn (44% to 43%) and Paxton (47% to 45%).
The poll also found that Cornyn is more unpopular than scandal-tarred Paxton—who has been impeached, indicted, and had affairs with at least two women who were not his wife—eliminating the establishment Republican argument that Cornyn is more electable.
Related | MAGA melts down over Trump’s expected Texas endorsement
According to the poll, just 24% of Texas voters have a favorable view of Cornyn, while a slightly higher 30% have a favorable view of Paxton.
Cornyn’s approval rating is lower likely because Republican voters view him far more unfavorably than Paxton—yet another data point that could keep Trump from getting involved. The poll found just 38% of Trump voters view Cornyn favorably, while 55% view Paxton in the same light.
That data point alone could keep Trump on the sidelines, since he could view an endorsement as betraying his voters.
Trump, for his part, is close with Paxton, as he (unsuccessfully) aided in Trump’s illegal plot to overturn the 2020 election and has fought Trump’s culture war battles in the courts. Cornyn, on the other hand, said Trump should not have run again in the 2024 election and only endorsed Trump once it became clear that he was going to be the GOP nominee. Even a possibly dementia-ridden Trump is sure to remember that slight.
Even if Trump endorses Cornyn, Paxton said he wouldn’t heed Trump’s demand to drop out of the race, which at the end of the day would leave Republicans with the same ugly proxy war they were looking to avoid. And polling released ahead of the primary suggested that Trump’s endorsement may not even be enough to help Cornyn win.
Related | Ken Paxton doubles down, adding to GOP’s Texas fears
Ultimately, it looks like Texas’ Senate race will be competitive. The national electoral environment looks to be increasingly hostile for Republicans as Trump has broken his campaign promises of lowering prices and keeping the country out of new foreign wars.
And Talarico—who has made his Christian faith a cornerstone of his campaign—is a uniquely intriguing Democratic candidate.
The PPP poll found that he has a positive favorability rating, with 41% of Texans viewing him favorably as opposed to the 35% who hold the opposite view, even as Republicans have hit him with attacks on his policy positions.
« These numbers suggest a close race regardless of who the GOP nominates, » the PPP memo stated. « The Texas Senate race will be highly competitive; driven by Talarico’s broad approval, and Cornyn and Paxton’s general election liabilities. »
Source:
www.dailykos.com