A targeted attack on Qatari gas facilities is causing unrest on world markets. While the Kingdom’s direct supply chains remain stable, rising prices and logistical risks pose a significant burden on the domestic economy.

Rabat – On Monday, March 2, 2026, the global energy landscape was shaken by news from Doha: The state-owned company QatarEnergy stopped producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other derivative products. This was preceded by a military attack on the industrial areas of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. According to the Qatari Ministry of Defense, two drones launched from Iran hit an energy facility and a water reservoir at a power plant. Even though there were no fatalities, the markets reacted immediately. The European reference price for natural gas (TTF) temporarily shot up by over 39% to up to 46.20 euros per megawatt hour – the highest level in a year.

Diversified delivery routes protect against immediate bottlenecks

For Morocco, this crisis situation raises the question of security of supply. Current data shows a differentiated picture: In contrast to many European countries, the kingdom does not purchase liquefied natural gas directly from Qatar. The Moroccan strategy in recent years has deliberately aimed to diversify sources and partners.

The national gas supply, which amounts to around one billion cubic meters annually and is primarily used to generate electricity, is based on two pillars. On the one hand, there are long-term contracts with the Shell Group. On the other hand, Morocco uses the so-called spot market, with the gas coming primarily from the USA and Peru. Logistically, this is handled via Spanish regasification terminals, from which the gas is sent to Morocco via the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline (GME). In 2025 alone, the country imported a record amount of around 10,375 gigawatt hours from Spain via this route. This decoupling of Qatari deliveries currently serves as a buffer against physical delivery failures.

Rising logistics costs and inflationary pressure are putting a strain on the budget

Despite stable physical supplies, Morocco is not immune to the economic shockwaves. With around 98% of Morocco’s foreign trade carried out by sea, tensions in strategic waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz are leading to drastic cost increases. According to analyzes by Oussama Ouassini, experts predict a potential doubling of freight rates from $2,100 to over $4,400 per container.

At the same time, the national budget is coming under pressure. The budget planning for 2026 was based on a stable oil price of around 60 to 65 US dollars per barrel. With the Brent price skyrocketing by 13% at the start of trading on March 2nd, this calculation is in danger of failing. If the price were to permanently rise above 80 or even 100 US dollars, the government would be faced with the dilemma of either allowing prices to rise at the pumps or expanding the budget deficit through massive subsidies. This would particularly affect the middle and working classes through “imported inflation” in food and transport costs. This is an unattractive scenario for the incumbent government and coalition parties who would like to be re-elected, especially before the upcoming parliamentary elections in September 2026.

The importance of natural gas for industrial value creation

Particular attention is paid to the OCP Group, the backbone of the Moroccan export economy as the largest phosphate group in the world and market leader in phosphate-based fertilizers. Natural gas is an essential raw material for the production of ammonia, which in turn is needed for the production of fertilizers. Since Morocco currently has hardly any natural gas reserves of its own, the OCP group also has to import ammonia. Rising gas prices on the global market increase production costs and could affect the Group’s international competitiveness.

In addition, disruptions in global supply chains could affect the Moroccan automotive and aviation industries. Plants in Tangier or Nouaceur rely on components from Asia. If production is reduced there due to high energy costs, there is a risk of technical shutdowns in Morocco, which in turn would have an impact on employment figures and the export balance.

Strategic expansion of energy sovereignty

In response to the volatile geopolitical situation, Rabat is pushing ahead with the restructuring of the national energy architecture. The focus is on expanding our own infrastructure in order to reduce dependence on foreign terminals. A floating regasification unit (FSRU) is expected to be operational in the Nador West Med port complex by 2027. In parallel, the development of a strategic gas reserve of up to 400 million cubic meters is planned.

These measures are part of a long-term vision: by 2030, 52% of installed electricity generation capacity should come from renewable energies. Natural gas acts as a necessary “bridge technology” to compensate for the fluctuations of wind and solar energy. In addition, the construction of production facilities for hydrogen, which is intended to replace natural gas, has not really started yet. The current crisis makes it clear that the speed of this transformation is no longer just a question of ecology, but one of national security and economic viability. Morocco is increasingly positioning itself as a stable logistics hub on the Atlantic that could, and indeed should, serve as a safe haven for international investments in a fragmented world.

Morocco – Strategic restructuring of the energy architecture through liquid natural gas LNG