On March 10, North Korea issued a stern warning against the ongoing joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, labeling the exercises a provocative and aggressive war rehearsal and threatening an overwhelming military response.

The North’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) carried the statement from Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and the main voice on inter-Korean relations, condemning the “Freedom Shield” exercises, which began on March 9.

“It is not a ‘military game’ but provocative and aggressive war rehearsal of those simulating and planning the confrontation with the DPRK,” Kim said in her statement. (DPRK is the acronym of North Korea’s official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.) 

The Freedom Shield exercises, involving more than 18,000 troops, are an annual fixture of the security alliance between the United States and South Korea, designed to enhance their combined defense posture against North Korean threats. While the allies have consistently maintained that these exercises are defensive and intended to ensure regional stability, Pyongyang has long viewed them as a dress rehearsal for an invasion. This year, the exercises have drawn particular ire from the North for incorporating advanced technology, including artificial intelligence and information warfare – which Kim cited as proof of an increasingly aggressive intent.

“Given that the danger has escalated in recent years as a result of the drastic increase of command and actual field mobilization exercises to apply and get familiar with new modern war manuals and methods appropriate to the actual conditions of the Korean peninsula, accompanied by nuclear elements, such training is being further supplemented by practical and provocative military elements including information warfare and AI technology this year, too,” Kim said.

Historically, the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises have been a major flashpoint and a significant barometer of the diplomatic climate on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s sensitivity to the exercises is so deep-seated that their suspension was a primary condition for the historic summit diplomacy in 2018 and 2019. At that time, during a brief period of rapprochement, major joint field exercises were scaled back or canceled to facilitate high-level talks between Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump. The resumption and expansion of these exercises signaled a definitive end to that era of engagement.

In her statement, Kim Yo Jong explicitly warned about North Korea’s responsive measures against the joint military exercises. “The muscle-flexing of the hostile forces near the areas of our state’s sovereignty and security may cause unimaginably terrible consequences,” Kim said.

However, what is happening in other countries also needs to be noted when analyzing the North’s rhetoric. 

Beyond the military exercises, North Korea’s rhetoric reflects a deepening anxiety following recent U.S. military actions in the Middle East. The Trump administration’s recent campaign against Iran, which resulted in the elimination of its top leadership, has sent a chilling message to Pyongyang. For Kim Jong Un, Trump represents a volatile double-edged sword: he remains perhaps the only American leader willing to engage in direct, unconventional diplomacy with Pyongyang, yet he has also proven capable of authorizing ruthless and preemptive strikes against perceived adversaries, as seen in Iran and Venezuela. Iran was engaged in talks with the United States until right before the military campaign.

This unpredictability – where diplomatic overtures can instantly pivot to military obliteration – has left North Korea in a strategic dilemma. By ramping up its own threats, Pyongyang may be attempting to signal that it will not share the fate of the Iranian leadership, even as it navigates the increasingly erratic and high-stakes foreign policy of the second Trump term. 

The White House recently said that Trump is interested in having an unconditional dialogue with Kim Jong Un. As Trump has also called North Korea a nuclear power, he is clearly the most ideal counterpart of Kim Jong Un, considering the traditional overtures of Trump’s predecessors.

Following the breakdown of the 2019 Hanoi summit between Trump and Kim, Pyongyang explicitly demanded that Washington make concessions as a measure to revive the deadlocked nuclear talks. In light of what Trump has demonstrated about his willingness to use U.S. military power, however, Kim may have some interest in meeting Trump when he heads to Beijing for a summit meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the end of the month – even if there is nothing concrete he can achieve from a summit with Trump at the moment.