The IDF and the ISA are reviewing claims that a person within the defense establishment, with access to classified material, used that information to place bets on Polymarket, a platform that allows wagers on future political and security developments.
Kan News reported Thursday night that the suspected activity took place in June 2025, around the time of Operation Rising Lion. According to the report, an anonymous Polymarket user placed bets totaling tens of thousands of dollars on four highly specific predictions regarding Israeli military action against Iran. All of the forecasts turned out to be accurate.
The wagers included predictions that Israel would carry out a strike in Iran on a specific Friday, that it would strike before July, and that it would announce the end of the operation by July.
Discussions were held on the matter between the ISA and the IDF Intelligence Directorate, but at this stage no formal investigation has been launched.
A similar case is under review in the United States, where a user successfully bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before a covert U.S. operation in Caracas. That individual reportedly opened an account about a month before the event, invested $32,500, and ultimately earned profits of approximately $436,000.
