« We call on all parties to accelerate and go beyond their initial negotiating positions, » recently declared Mukhtar Babayev, President of the upcoming COP29, in his first official letter to the 200 countries participating in the 29th United Nations Climate Conference in Baku from November 11 to 22. The effort of rich countries in favor of developing countries is still largely insufficient, four months before the event.
Indeed, COP29 will open on November 11 in the capital of Azerbaijan. After COP28 held in the United Arab Emirates last December, Baku was designated as the host of the climate summit next November after difficult negotiations. There is no longer a taboo about involving hydrocarbon-producing countries in the long march against climate change. Did we have a choice? Especially since it is already known that COP30 will be held in Latin America, in Brazil. Two of the world’s largest oil producers, then. Why is this an opportunity for these countries and for us? According to UN rules, it was Eastern Europe’s turn to take the rotating presidency, but groups must unanimously decide on the host country. Russia blocked EU countries, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, which mutually blocked each other’s bids.
Participants began to worry about whether a country would be able to gather the money and facilities needed to host a conference of such magnitude. But Armenia withdrew its bid and agreed to support Azerbaijan. Climate activists already reacted with concern last winter to this news, as the economy of the Caucasus country heavily depends on oil and gas exports. Just like the Emirates! Azerbaijan, a country of 10 million people located at the border of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, economically depends on fossil fuels: oil and gas production accounted for nearly half of Azerbaijan’s GDP and more than 92.5% of its export revenue last year, according to the U.S. government’s International Trade Administration. This is precisely an opportunity.
In a speech last December at COP28 in Dubai, Azerbaijani Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Mukhtar Babayev, stated that Azerbaijan was « fully committed to contributing to global efforts » to mitigate climate change. Moreover, he added that Azerbaijan aims to increase the share of electricity produced from renewable sources to 30% by 2030.
Babayev also suggested that Azerbaijan would make the territories under reconstruction a « carbon-neutral zone » by 2050, referring to the areas in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. He suggested this would be achieved through sustainable agriculture, environmentally friendly transportation, smart cities, smart villages, and reforestation.
The country has about 2,500 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. Although the emissions linked to global warming from burning natural gas are lower than those from coal or oil, they are still significantly higher than those from green energy sources. Climatologists assert that increasing natural gas production appears as one of the main drivers of climate change and could cripple efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But if we do not include the producing countries, how can we solve this issue? It is like in a diplomatic negotiation: to make peace, both parties must obviously be present. This will eventually prevent producers from being continuously portrayed as the big bad wolves when these countries produce primarily for us!
Azerbaijan’s bid received approval from nearly 200 countries, including long-time adversary Armenia, which recently accepted the basic principles of the peace treaty after decades of conflict. Additionally, COP28 members also chose the host for the summit scheduled in 2025: it will be Brazil for COP30. President Lula thus wishes to host the conference in the Amazon, a region particularly affected by climate change and deforestation endangering the Earth’s lungs.
But nothing will be achieved if rich countries do not increase their financial participation in very difficult negotiations, which would then allow COP29 to mark a new stage in the fight against global warming. As if, once again, in a very tense international context, the ecological urgency has once more taken a back seat.
